Nigeria’s mining industry has received growing media attention over the past decade, particularly in relation to artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM). To understand how the sector is portrayed and what this means for policy, a collocation dataset was developed from 406 news headlines published between 2016 and 2025 in Daily Trust, The Punch, and The Nigerian Tribune. These headlines focus on key themes such as mining legality, government actions, gold extraction, and artisanal activities.
A simple machine learning analysis using Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree, and Bayesian models was applied to these headlines. The goal was to identify recurring patterns in language and to draw out what these patterns reveal about public perception and policy focus in the mining sector. The results provide insights that can help the government, policymakers, and other stakeholders improve the way mining issues are governed, communicated, and addressed.
Patterns in the Headlines
Across all three newspapers, the word “illegal” appeared most frequently alongside mining-related terms. It was commonly linked to gold, artisanal miners, and the Federal Government. This shows that public reporting on mining often centers on crime, enforcement, and government action rather than on economic development or community empowerment.
Headlines connecting “FG” and “miners” tended to focus on illegal mining activities, suggesting a recurring narrative of tension between the government and local miners. Meanwhile, positive words such as “investment,” “development,” and “wealth creation” were much less common, indicating that the economic and social value of mining is not receiving equal attention in media coverage.
Insights from the Analytical Models
Support Vector Machine (SVM) Results
The SVM model found that headlines mentioning miners, gold, the Federal Government, or artisanal activities were the strongest indicators of “illegal” mining stories. In contrast, generic mentions of mining without these associations were less likely to be labeled as illegal.
This pattern shows that illegality in mining is often framed as a conflict between miners and government officials, particularly in the context of gold extraction. It also suggests that the public primarily sees the mining sector through issues of enforcement and regulation rather than opportunity and reform.
Decision Tree Results
The Decision Tree model produced clear and interpretable patterns. When both “FG” and “miners” appeared in a headline, it was very likely to relate to illegal mining. When “gold” or “artisanal” appeared without direct reference to the Federal Government, there was still a moderate chance of the headline being about illegality. Headlines that used broader terms like “mining sector” or “solid minerals” tended to be neutral or general.
This finding indicates that public discussions about mining are strongly influenced by the relationship between government oversight and local mining practices. The decision tree structure shows that illegality is not just associated with mining itself but with who is involved and under what circumstances.
Bayesian Model Results
The Bayesian analysis reinforced these insights by showing that the probability of a headline being about illegal mining increased significantly when the words gold, miners, and artisanal appeared together. This suggests that artisanal gold mining is perceived as the most common context for illegality within the sector.
Implications for Government and Policymakers
The results reveal that the media plays a major role in shaping how the mining sector is understood by the public. Since the government and its agencies appear most frequently in stories about illegality, the Federal Ministry of Solid Minerals Development and related bodies have an opportunity to reshape this narrative. There is a need to clearly separate the ideas of “illegal” and “informal” mining. Many artisanal miners operate outside formal regulation not because of criminal intent, but because of barriers to licensing, limited access to finance, or lack of awareness. Simplifying registration processes and creating cooperative structures can help formalize these miners and change how they are portrayed.
Communication strategies should highlight positive developments in the sector. Government messages should present artisanal miners as partners in reform and sustainability, not merely as violators of the law. Public awareness campaigns, local language radio programmes, and media briefings can all contribute to this shift in perception. Policy attention should focus on minerals and regions most linked to illegal activity. Gold extraction remains the most sensitive area, particularly in states such as Zamfara, Niger, Osun, and Plateau. Strengthening gold traceability, improving monitoring systems, and building stronger links between local and federal authorities can help reduce both environmental and security risks.
Media analytics can be used as a policy tool. This could be done through monitoring of the frequency and tone of mining-related headlines, the government can detect early signs of public concern or rising illegal activity. This allows for timely interventions and better coordination with state governments.
Implications for Other Stakeholders
State Governments
State governments can play a central role in formalizing artisanal mining by providing local registration points, facilitating training, and ensuring safety compliance. Collaborating with the Federal Government will help ensure that enforcement is fair and that miners see regulation as supportive rather than punitive.
Miners’ Associations and Cooperatives
Miners’ associations should lead efforts to promote responsible mining. Public education campaigns can help separate artisanal miners from the perception of illegality. Associations can also work with government agencies to demonstrate that organized, legal mining contributes to local development.
Civil Society and Non-Governmental Organizations
NGOs and advocacy groups can use these findings to push for more inclusive mining policies. Training programmes and capacity-building projects can help miners understand and meet regulatory requirements while protecting the environment.
Private Sector and Investors
Investors should recognize that public perceptions of illegality can discourage investment even in legitimate projects. Supporting cooperative mining, sustainability initiatives, and transparency programs can help rebuild confidence and attract responsible investment into the sector.
Action Priorities
- Formalization of Artisanal Mining: Simplify registration and licensing, and link small miners to cooperative financing programs.
- Improved Communication: Launch public campaigns that highlight positive examples of formalized and sustainable mining.
- Gold Traceability and Regulation: Strengthen monitoring and certification systems for gold production and trade.
- Data-Driven Monitoring: Establish a media and public discourse tracker to identify emerging issues early.
- Stakeholder Collaboration: Hold annual dialogues between government, miners, civil society, and investors to coordinate reforms.
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